Italiano (IT) 
English (UK) 
The tendency to perceive election results as more predictable, once known, is a known phenomenon. However, research into the cognitive and motivational factors that cause individuals to overestimate the predictability of an election result has produced inconsistent results. This research project investigates how different levels of "hindsight bias" are associated with different cognitive and motivational factors.
Publications
Think different? Populist attitudes, their antecedents and consequences on vote behaviour and outcome evaluation in the 2016 and 2020 Italian constitutional referenda.
Bertolotti, M., Leone, C. & Catellani, P. (under review).
Hindsight bias and electoral outcomes: Satisfaction counts more than winner-loser status
Bertolotti, M. & Catellani, P. (2021). Social Cognition, 39, 201–224. 
Il senno di poi degli elettori: illusioni, delusioni, sorprese.
Bertolotti, M. e Catellani, P. (2018). In ITANES (a cura di), Vox populi. Il voto ad alta voce del 2018, Il Mulino, Bologna, pp. 225-238.