Counterfactual thinking as a prebunking strategy to contrast misinformation on COVID-19

Bertolotti, M. & Catellani, P. (2023). Journal of Experimental Social Psychology. 104, 104404.

Legumes or meat? The effectiveness of recommendation messages towards a plant-based diet depends on people’s identification with flexitarians

Carfora, V., & Catellani, P. (2023). Nutrients, 15(1), 15. Online

Advertising innovative sustainable fashion: Informational, transformational, or sustainability appeal?

Carfora, V., & Catellani, P. (2022). Sustainability, 14(23), 16148. Online

“If it weren’t for COVID-19…”: Counterfactual arguments influence support for climate change policies via cross-domain moral licensing or moral consistency effects

Bertolotti, M., Valla, L. G., & Catellani, P. (2022). Frontiers in Psychology, 13, 1005813. Online

Affective components in promoting physical activity: A randomized controlled trial of message framing

Carfora V., Biella M., & Catellani P. (2022). Frontiers in Psychology, 13, 968109.

The influence of message framing on consumers’ selection of local food

Carfora V., Morandi M., & Catellani P. (2022).
 Foods, 11, 1268.

The effect of message framing in promoting the Mediterranean diet: The moderating role of eating self-efficacy.

Carfora, V., Morandi, M., & Catellani, P. (2022).
Foods, 11, 1454.

Predicting and promoting the consumption of plant-based meat

Carfora V., Morandi M., & Catellani P. (2022). British Food Journal. 124, 4800-4822. 

Adding dynamic norm to environmental information in persuasive messages: The role of receivers’ intrinsic motivation

Carfora, V., Zeiske, N., van der Werff, E., Steg, L. & Catellani, P. (2022). Environmental Communication, 16, 900-919.

The psychosocial drivers of the adherence to the Mediterranean Diet

Carfora V., Morandi M., Jelić, A., & Catellani P. (2022). Public Health Nutrition, 25, 2742-2757.

Framing and tailoring prefactual messages to reduce red meat consumption: Predicting effects through a psychology-based graphical causal model

Catellani, P., Carfora, V., & Piastra, M. (2022). Frontiers in Psychology, 13, 825602.

Integrating personal and pro-environmental motives to explain women’s purchase of sustainable clothing

Carfora, V., Buscicchio, G. & Catellani, P. (2021). Sustainability, 13, 10841.

Think different? Populist attitudes, their antecedents and consequences on vote behaviour and outcome evaluation in the 2016 and 2020 Italian constitutional referenda

Bertolotti, M., Leone, C. & Catellani, P. (2021).  Italian Journal of Electoral Studies, 84, 65-78.

Framing prefactual affective posts about vegetable consumption

Carfora, V., Jelic, A., Bertolotti, M., & Catellani, P. (2021). In L. Pačić-Turk (Ed.), Brain and mind: Promoting individual and community well-being. Selected proceedings of the 2nd International Scientific Conference. Zagreb, Croatia, Catholic University of Croatia, pp. 197-210.

Explaining intention to reduce red and processed meat in the UK and Italy using the Theory of Planned Behaviour, meat-eater identity, and the Transtheoretical Model.

Wolstenholme, E., Carfora, V., Catellani, P., Poortinga, V. & Whitmarsh, L. (2021). Appetite, 166, 105467. 

Why do consumers intend to purchase natural food? Integrating theory of planned behavior, value-belief-norm theory, and trust.

Carfora, V., Cavallo, C., Catellani, P., Giudice, T.D., & Cicia, G. (2021). Nutrients, 13, 1904. 

Connecting social psychology and deep reinforcement learning: A probabilistic predictor on the intention to do home-based physical activity after message exposure.

Catellani, P., Carfora, V., & Piastra (2021). Frontiers in Psychology, 12, 696770. 

The effect of persuasive messages in promoting home-based physical activity during COVID-19 pandemic. 

Carfora, V., Catellani, P. (2021). Frontiers in Psychology, 12, 644050. 

A cognitive-emotional model to explain message framing effects: Reducing meat consumption. 

Carfora, V., Pastore, M. & Catellani, P. (2021). Frontiers in Psychology, 12, 583209. 

Hindsight bias and electoral outcomes: Satisfaction counts more than winner-loser status

Bertolotti, M. & Catellani, P. (2021). Social Cognition, 39, 201–224. 

Framing messages on the economic impact of climate change policies: Effects on climate believers and climate skeptics

Bertolotti, M., Catellani, P., & Nelson, T. (2021). Environmental Communication, 15, 715-730. 

Going green but staying in the black: Framing effects in communication on the economic impact of environmental policies.

Bertolotti, M. & Catellani, P. (2021). Frontiers in Psychology, 12, 624001. 

How expert witnesses’ counterfactuals influence causal and responsibility attributions of mock jurors and expert judges. 

Catellani, P., Bertolotti, M., Vagni, M., & Pajardi, D. (2021). Applied Cognitive Psychology, 35, 3-17.   

Rational and moral motives to reduce red and processed meat consumption

Carfora, V., Conner, M., Caso, D., & Catellani, P. (2020). Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 50, 744-755.  

How expert witnesses’ counterfactuals influence causal and responsibility attributions of mock jurors and expert judges.

Catellani, P., Bertolotti, M., Vagni, M. e Pajardi, D. (in press). Applied Cognitive Psychology.

Dialogue management in conversational agents through psychology of persuasion and machine learning

Carfora, V., Di Massimo, F., Rastelli, R., Catellani, P., & Piastra, M. (2020). Multimedia Tools and Applications, 39, 35949-35971. 

Psicologia, voto e comunicazione politica: rischi e opportunità per la democrazia.

 Catellani, P. (2020). Politeia, 36, pp. 139-144. 

Regulatory focus and the effect of nutritional messages on health and well-being: The case of red meat intake.

Bertolotti, M., Carfora, V. & Catellani, P. (2020).
Applied Psychology: Health and Wellbeing, 12, 212-230. 

Different frames to reduce red meat intake: The moderating role of self-efficacy.

Bertolotti, M., Carfora, V. & Catellani, P. (2020).
Health Communication, 35, 475-482. 

Comunicazione politica online: un percorso a due velocità

Catellani, P. (2019). Echo. Rivista interdisciplinare di comunicazione, 1, 20-27. 

Applying psychology of persuasion to conversational agents through reinforcement learning: An exploratory study

Di Massimo, F., Carfora, V., Catellani, P., & Piastra, M. (2019). CEUR – Workshop Proceedings, 2481, 27.  

Informational and emotional daily messages to reduce red and processed meat consumption.

Carfora, V., Bertolotti, M., & Catellani, P. (2019). Appetite, 141,  

How to reduce red and processed meat consumption by daily text messages targeting environment or health benefits. 

Carfora, V., Catellani, P., Caso, D., & Conner, M. (2019). Journal of Environmental Psychology, 65, 

The effects of counterfactual attacks on the morality and leadership of different professionals.

Bertolotti, M. & Catellani, P. (2018). Social Psychology, 49, 154-167.  

Promoting change in meat consumption among the elderly

Bertolotti, M., Chirchiglia, G. & Catellani, P. (2016).
Promoting change in meat consumption among the elderly: Factual and prefactual framing of health and well-being, Appetite,
106, 37-47.

Salute o benessere? Effetti di framing nella comunicazione alimentare rivolta agli anziani

Bertolotti, M. e Catellani, P. (2016). Ricerche di Psicologia, 39, 79-92. 

Agreement with climate change policies: Framing the future and national versus supra-national identity.

Bertolotti, M. & Catellani, P. (2015).
Agreement with climate change policies: Framing the future and national versus supra-national identity.
European Journal of Social Psychology, 
45, 847-857.     Through an experiment included in a nationwide survey conducted prior to the 2014 European elections, we investigated whether citizens’ agreement with policies dealing with the global issue of climate change depends on how such policies are framed and citizens’ identification with the national or supranational entities enacting them. Participants were presented with different versions of a statement proposing investments in renewable energy sources, manipulated in terms of hedonic consequences (benefits of adoption vs adverse effects of non-adoption), regulatory concern (growth vs safety) and policy actor group membership (national vs supranational actor). Participants’ national/supranational identification was also measured. Participants’ agreement with the policy was stronger for congruently framed messages (i.e. messages framed in terms of positive growth-related consequences and negative safety-related consequences) than for incongruently framed messages. The effect of framing was further enhanced when the policy was attributed to a national or supranational actor with whom participants identified.

The effects of counterfactual defences on social judgements

Catellani, P. & Bertolotti, M. (2014).
European Journal of Social Psychology,
44, 82-92.   Research on counterfactuals (‘If only…’) has seldom considered the effects of counterfactual communication, especially in a defensive context. In three studies, we investigated the effects of counterfactual defences employed by politicians. We assumed that self-focused upward counterfactuals (‘If only I…, the outcome would have been better’) are a form of concession, other-focused upward counterfactuals (‘If only they…, the outcome would have been better’) are a form of excuse, and self-focused downward counterfactuals (‘If only I…, the outcome would have been worse’) are a form of justification. In Study 1, a counterfactual defence led to a more positive evaluation of the politician than a corresponding factual defence. Of the two types of defence, the counterfactual defence reduced the extent to which the politician was held responsible for the past event and was perceived as more convincing. In Study 2, counterfactual excuse and counterfactual justification were equally effective and led to a more positive evaluation of the politician than counterfactual concession. In Study 3, the higher effectiveness of counterfactual justification was independent from perceived ideological similarity with the politician, supporting the strength of this defence. These results show that counterfactual defences provide subtle communication strategies that effectively influence social judgements. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Publisher website  

The Effects of message framing in policy communication on climate change.

Bertolotti, M. & Catellani, P. (2014).
Effects of message framing in policy communication on climate change.
European Journal of Social Psychology, 
44, 474–486.   In two studies, we investigated the framing effects of policy messages regarding climate change. In Study 1, we asked participants to read policy messages that envisioned positive consequences. Messages varied as to their outcome sensitivity (achievement of positive outcomes versus avoidance of negative outcomes), regulatory concern (growth versus safety) and goal-pursuit strategy (investment in renewable energy versus intervention on greenhouse gas emissions). Participants showed the highest agreement with a policy message on renewable energy when it was formulated in terms of the achievement of positive, growth-related outcomes and with a greenhouse gas emissions message when it was formulated in terms of the avoidance of negative, safety-related outcomes. The same held for the intention to vote for candidates proposing those policies. In Study 2, participants’ regulatory focus moderated these effects, with promotion-focused participants preferring messages focused on the achievement of positive outcomes and prevention-focused participants preferring messages focused on the avoidance of negative outcomes. Results show that the fit among the various levels of framing of a policy message regarding climate change, moderated by individual regulatory focus, increases the probability that recipients agree with the policy. 

Tra Facebook e i TG. Esposizione mediale e percezione dei leader nella campagna elettorale italiana del 2013.

Barisione, M., Catellani, P. & Garzia, D. (2014).
Tra Facebook e i TG. Esposizione mediale e percezione dei leader nella campagna elettorale italiana del 2013.
Comunicazione Politica, 
6, 187-210.     Nell’insieme sempre più diversificato di piattaforme che caratterizza la comunicazione politica ed elettorale, la popolarità dei leader può variare in modo diverso a seconda dei canali di informazione politica utilizzati dagli elettori e della maggiore o minore congruenza dello stile comunicativo di un leader con quello di ogni dato medium. A partire dai dati dell’inchiesta ITANES Rolling Cross Section (RCS) condotta via CAWI su 8.700 intervistati nei 40 giorni precedenti il voto del febbraio 2013, questo articolo analizza la struttura e le dinamiche di popolarità di Berlusconi, Bersani, Monti e Grillo, con una particolare enfasi sulle relazioni tra valutazione del leader e tipo di esposizione mediale degli intervistati. I risultati mostrano come persistano forme di ‘media partisanship’ e polarizzazione ideologica in Italia, soprattutto nei canali televisivi Mediaset e nei quotidiani orientati a sinistra. Gli elettori che utilizzano Internet come principale fonte di informazione politica appaiono come i più forti sostenitori dei leader del proprio partito, mentre livelli più elevati di ‘attivismo online’ sono associati a un maggiore interesse per la politica e, quindi, a valutazioni dei leader mediamente più alte. Pur apparendo relativamente politicizzato, chi riceve informazioni elettorali anche via Facebook si caratterizza, al contrario, per un atteggiamento più critico verso tutti i leader politici. Infine, i fruitori abituali di programmi di intrattenimento TV continuano a presentare evidenti atteggiamenti pro-Berlusconi. In conclusione, se le preferenze politiche si strutturano chiaramente per tipo di di esposizione mediale, le loro dinamiche lungo la campagna elettorale appaiono omogenee attraverso i diversi media. Un’analisi finale del caso di Beppe Grillo fornisce una riprova della natura “ibrida” e interconnessa dell’attuale sistema mediale, dove un attore politico può avere...

Introduzione allo special issue su moralità e psicologia sociale

Catellani, P. (2014).
Introduzione allo special issue su moralità e psicologia sociale: percorsi di ricerca e direzioni future. 
In-Mind,
7, 1-2. I contributi presentati in questo numero di In-Mind offrono un quadro sintetico, ma anche chiaro e aggiornato, delle principali direzioni di ricerca verso le quali si stanno indirizzando gli studi psicosociali sulla moralità. Se già da tempo la moralità è al centro dell’attenzione della psicologia dello sviluppo e del ragionamento, è invece relativamente recente l’interesse della psicologia sociale per questo tema. Interesse che in breve tempo è stato in grado di offrire alcune chiavi di lettura stimolanti. In modi diversi, tutti i contributi mettono in evidenza l’importanza della dimensione della moralità nelle percezioni e nelle scelte delle persone. Mostrano inoltre che, se da un lato la morale è profondamente radicata nell’individuo, dall’altra è profondamente condizionata dalla società. Infine, indicano un serie di percorsi di ricerca che, se sviluppati ulteriormente, possono contribuire in modo significativo a far comprendere appieno le dinamiche di radicamento, ma anche di cambiamento, delle convinzioni e dei comportamenti morali di ciascuno.  

The effects of factual and counterfactual attacks on social judgments

Catellani, P. e Bertolotti, M. (2014). 
The effects of factual and counterfactual attacks on social judgments. 
Social Psychology, 
45, 371-381.          Two experiments were conducted to compare the effects of different styles of verbal criticism (factual vs. counterfactual) on the perceptions of target, source, and quality of the attack. Counterfactual attacks resulted in more negative overall judgment of the target and ratings of the target’s morality than either factual attacks or no attack. Counterfactual attacks were also rated more positively than factual attacks, and the source of the counterfactual attack was rated as being less biased against the target. Regression analyses confirmed that the observed effect on overall judgment was mediated by the perceived bias of the source. The greater effectiveness of counterfactual attacks was moderated by awareness of prior hostility of the source of the attack toward the target.        

Counterfactuals, the national economy, and voting choice

Catellani, P., Milesi, P. e Alberici, A.I. (2014).
Current Psychology,
33, pp. 47-63.
Previous research has shown that counterfactual thinking (“if only…”) is related to event explanation, blame assignment, and future decisions. Using data from a large-scale electoral panel survey (ITANES), we investigated the association between pre-election counterfactual thoughts on the national economy and subsequent voting choice. Results revealed that voters focused counterfactuals on the government and other political or economic actors but also, and more frequently, on unspecified or reified actors. Whereas counterfactuals focused on the government were associated with voting for the challenger, counterfactuals focused on political or economic actors or on reified actors were associated with voting for the incumbent. These associations were even stronger when counterfactuals had a subtractive (“if only X had not…”) rather than an additive (“if only X had…”) structure. The inclusion of the targets of the counterfactuals added significantly to the predictive value of a model of voting choice based on voters’ evaluation of the national economy. Publisher website    

The strategic use of counterfactual communication in politics

Catellani, P. & Covelli, P. (2013).
Journal of Language and Social Psychology,
32, 495-504.   While counterfactual thinking has been widely investigated, we know much less about how counterfactual (“If . . . then”) statements are employed in political communication. We analysed statements made by politicians during pre-electoral televised broadcasts, to assess whether politicians employ counterfactuals in facework. Counterfactuals were coded according to their direction, controllability, and structure. Log-linear analysis revealed that upward, controllable, and additive counterfactuals were more frequent than downward, uncontrollable, and subtractive counterfactuals, respectively. A significant three-way interaction between target, direction, and controllability also emerged. While politicians more often employed upward controllable counterfactuals when speaking about targets other than themselves, they more often used downward controllable and upward uncontrollable counterfactuals when referring to themselves. These findings advance our knowledge of how counterfactuals are employed by politicians to promote their positive face and aggravate the face of adversaries.   Publisher website  

The “Big Two” in political communication: The effects of attacking and defending politicians’ leadership or morality

Bertolotti, M., Catellani, P., Douglas, K.M., & Sutton R.M. (2013).
Social Psychology,
44, 117-128. In two experimental studies (conducted in Britain and Italy), participants read about a politician answering to leadership- versus morality-related allegations using either downward counterfactuals (“things could have been worse, if ...”) or upward counterfactuals (“things could have been better, if ...”). Downward messages increased the perception of the politician’s leadership, while both downward and upward messages increased morality perception. Political sophistication moderated the effect of message direction, with downward messages increasing perceived morality in low sophisticates and upward messages increasing perceived morality in high sophisticates. In the latter group, the acknowledgment of an intent to take responsibility mediated morality judgment. Results were consistent across different countries, highlighting previously unexplored effects of communication on the perception of the “Big Two” dimensions. Publisher website    

The day after an electoral defeat: Counterfactuals and collective action

Milesi, P. e Catellani, P. (2011).
British Journal of Social Psychology,
50, 690-706.   An intriguing question for scholars of collective action is how participants of unsuccessful actions become re-engaged in future collective activities. At an individual level, previous research has shown that after negative outcomes counterfactual thoughts (‘if only … ’) may serve to prepare for future action. In the current research, we investigated whether counterfactuals may also prepare for future action at a collective level. After a defeat of their party at the regional elections, 163 political activists rated their agreement with abstract (as opposed to concrete) and party-focused (as opposed to other-focused) counterfactuals about how the elections outcome might have been better. Results showed that abstract counterfactuals, dealing with the core elements of the elections, supported collective action intention better than concrete ones. Consistent with the recent developments of dual-pathway models of collective action, counterfactuals predicted collective action intention through the mediation of group efficacy and group identification. In particular, while both party- and other-focused abstract counterfactuals increased group efficacy, only other-focused abstract counterfactuals increased group identification. Discussion focuses on how the investigation of counterfactuals can enlarge our knowledge of the socio-cognitive antecedents of collective action.   Publisher website  

Does the candidate matter? Comparing the voting choice of early and late deciders

Catellani, P. & Alberici, A.I. (2012).
Political Psychology,
33, 619-634.   Publisher website  

Fatti e controfatti nel ragionamento giudiziario

Catellani, P. (2010).
Sistemi Intelligenti,
22, 209-220.   W
hen reasoning about judicial cases, people often compare reality with its alternatives, what happened with what could or should have happened. While doing this, they may refer to various types of legal and extra-legal norms. In this paper, I review research results on how people engage in counterfactual reasoning in the judicial context. Some studies have shown that the spontaneous use of counterfactual reasoning may produce a biased decision, leading jurors to focus attention on aspects that are not relevant to the legal evaluation of the case at hand. Other studies, however, have suggested that a more controlled use of counterfactual thinking may reduce reference to legally irrelevant norms. These results suggest that instructions and training programmes aimed at fostering the generation and comparison of several counterfactual alternatives may improve the quality of judicial decision making. Publisher website  

1985 - 2003